Future population dynamics of barnacle geese (Barnaclefuture)

The aim of this project is to model the population dynamics and predict population trajectories in a barnacle geese population at Ny-Ålesund.

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Project type

  • field work
  • modelling
  • arctic field grant (afg)


  • terrestrial biology

Project Keywords

  • biosphere / terrestrial ecosystems / alpine/tundra

Fieldwork information

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The aim of this project is to predict population dynamics and thus quasi-exintinction risk of barnacle geese under likely future climate change scenarios. As populations of migratory geese are rapidly increasing in Europe, i will also investigate the potential management implications the predicted development in population dynamics will have. My main source of data is mark-recapture data from the population of barnacle geese at Kongsfjorden in Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard. This includes data on nests, clutch size, survival in chicks and adults which will be used in a bayesian population model to estimate population sizes in relation to environmental variation. I will also gather data on presence and predation from polar bears (Ursus maritimus) on the population of barnacle geese and implement it into the model.

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